вторник, 20 февраля 2018 г.

Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 11% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in January were up 2.8% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 10.7% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fifteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices rose a little faster in 2017 compared to 2016 (5.0% through November or 5.5% annual rate).

January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jan-08 2,907 --- 553 19.0% 56,8741 ---
Jan-09 4,736 62.9% 1,625 34.3% 53,581 -5.8%
Jan-10 5,789 22.2% 2,475 42.8% 41,506 -22.5%
Jan-11 6,539 13.0% 3,263 49.9% 42,881 3.3%
Jan-12 6,455 -1.3% 3,198 49.5% 25,025 -41.6%
Jan-13 5,790 -10.3% 2,555 44.1% 22,090 -11.7%
Jan-14 4,799 -17.1% 1,740 36.3% 28,630 29.6%
Jan-15 4,785 -0.3% 1,529 32.0% 27,238 -4.9%
Jan-16 5,199 8.7% 1,425 27.4% 25,736 -5.5%
Jan-17 6,028 15.9% 1,631 27.1% 23,762 -7.7%
Jan-18 6,197 2.8% 1,668 26.9% 21,226 -10.7%
1 January 2008 probably included pending listings


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