Git Tips for Improved ‘Version Control Skills’ | #tipsandtricks

Dan Kelch has a quick roundup of a few useful Git features – hooks, reflog, aliases, and more – to improve your version control skillz:

Git is a fantastic tool, used by millions of people around the world. While Git GUIs can be useful tools, using git on the command line has a higher ceiling for productivity, especially when one can use aliases or refer to their own command history.

Today, I’m going to go over a few Git features that I use every day. Many of these will build on top of basic Git knowledge (add, reset, checkout, commit, merge, pull, push), so we should be familiar with these before proceeding.

Read more here at Atomic Object.

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ESP8266 + @IFTTT ‏= ‘DIY Amazon Dash Button Clone’ | #IoT #IoTuesday

This is a pretty straightforward idea combining a WiFi module with a pushbutton, but Random Nerd Tutorials does a great job of walking through the IFTTT dashboards to assist you with understanding the various settings – awesome!

For complete project details (schematics + source code), visit
https://randomnerdtutorials.com/esp8266-wi-fi-button-diy-amazon-dash-button-clone/

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Someone’s Already Made the Infinity War Captain America Shield

We’ve only seen a small amount of footage from Avengers: Infinity War, and in it, we’ve seen Captain America has a new shield. There was only a glimpse of it in the trailer. That’s all Redditor blu-tron needed to get to work to replicate the front of the shield. They made the shield from metal and says it weighs less than four pounds. With adjustable nylon straps on the back, the weight can be distributed enough to make it comfortable to carry.

via Reddit

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NASA’s Real Life ‘Hidden Figure’ On How To Advance Women In STEM #MakerEducation

Nice interview with NASA’s Dr. Christyl Johnson from Forbes.

“There are so many women that are capable, smart, sharp and good at what they do. What they are lacking is the opportunity to sit across the table from the other minds that are coming up with the innovative solutions,” says Dr. Christyl Johnson, NASA’s Deputy Director for Technology and Research Investments.

Dr. Johnson joined NASA in the summer of 1985 and over the years she has dedicated her efforts to support young women in STEM fields (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math.)

Described as a ‘modern figure’ Dr. Johnson is regularly likened to the characters in the movie Hidden Figures. The film portrays the experience of Katherine Johnson, Dorothy Vaughn and Mary Jackson – three talented African-American women – who worked at NASA Langley in 1961.

Read more.

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Each Tuesday is EducationTuesday here at Adafruit! Be sure to check out our posts about educators and all things STEM. Adafruit supports our educators and loves to spread the good word about educational STEM innovations!

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Small motor controller with integrated position sensor

Via Build-its-inprogress

A while ago I added the hall effect encoder IC I’ve been using directly to the motor controller PCB. The controller sits directly on the back of the motor (with a magnet added to the motor shaft), and the phase wires solder straight in. I also have a pair of board-mounted XT30 connectors on the DC bus for easy daisy-chaining. Otherwise, the board is basically identical to the previous version of this controller. I’ve now built over a dozen of these, and have had no problems.

I plan on doing another revision of this controller using the new replacement to the DRV8301/2, the DRV8323, which Austin has played around with already. That should let me shrink the controller even more. I also plan on designing some general-purpose mounting brackets that fit a wide variety of hobby motors, to make it really easy to strap these controllers on the back of basically any small motor. In a similar vein, I’ve also mostly written an auto-tuner for automatically measuring motor parameters for tuning the current loops. I’ve verified that the measurement works, but haven’t integrated it with the rest of my motor control code yet.

Once I get those things done, it should be super easy for me to throw all the small motors I have onto the motor dyno and fill out the motor database quite a bit.

For testing and easy dyno-ing I machined some mounts for attaching the controller on the back of my T-Motor U8’s and U8 knock-offs. This isn’t the intended use of this controller, but I’ll get into that in a later post.

See more details!

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An Artist and Anthropologist Reinterpret Stone Age Tools as Sculpture #ArtTuesday

via HYPERALLERGIC

For over two million years, humans and their predecessors have left behind stone tools. Our evolutionary history is littered with these utilitarian artifacts: from Australopithecus to Neanderthals to sapiens, early hominins created handaxes, scrapers, and stone cores across Eurasia, Africa, Southeast Asia, even Australia. These tools are usually categorized according to function. But what if these pieces of worked stones were more than just utilitarian? What if they, as we might say two million years later, were art for art’s sake?

The exhibition First Sculpture: Handaxes to Figure Stone, currently on view at the Nasher Sculpture Center in Dallas, reframes stone tools as a form of early sculpture, suggesting that perhaps the human mind is hard-wired for abstract representation. First Sculpture is curated by Tony Berlant, a Los Angeles artist who collects indigenous art, and Thomas Wynn, a prominent anthropologist at the University of Colorado. Berlant and Wynn began their collaboration for the exhibition in 2013, focusing on the aesthetics of Acheulean handaxes, and later expanding the catalogue to include more controversial figure stones and spheroids. Their curious and provocative show focuses on an age-old tension between form and function, treating the objects on display, first, foremost, and fundamentally, as works of art.

See and learn more!

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Every Tuesday is Art Tuesday here at Adafruit! Today we celebrate artists and makers from around the world who are designing innovative and creative works using technology, science, electronics and more. You can start your own career as an artist today with Adafruit’s conductive paints, art-related electronics kits, LEDs, wearables, 3D printers and more! Make your most imaginative designs come to life with our helpful tutorials from the Adafruit Learning System. And don’t forget to check in every Art Tuesday for more artistic inspiration here on the Adafruit Blog!

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Time Travel Tuesday #timetravel a look back at the Adafruit, maker, science, technology and engineering world

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1748 – Swedish physician and naturalist Anders Sparrman is born.

He sailed for the Cape of Good Hope in January 1772 to take up a post as a tutor. When James Cook arrived there later in the year at the start of his second voyage, Sparrman was taken on as assistant naturalist to Johann and Georg Forster. After the voyage he returned to Cape Town in July 1775 and practiced medicine, earning enough to finance a journey into the interior. He was guided by Daniel Ferdinand Immelman, the young frontiersman who had previously guided the Swedish botanist Carl Peter Thunberg. Daniel and Sparrman reached the Great Fish River and returned in April 1776.

In 1776 Sparrman returned to Sweden, where he had been awarded an honorary doctorate in his absence. He was also elected a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in 1777. He was appointed keeper of the natural historical collections of the Academy of Sciences in 1780, Professor of natural history and pharmacology in 1781 and assessor of the Collegium Medicum in 1790. In 1787 he took part in an expedition to West Africa, but this was not successful.

Read more

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1869 – Alice Hamilton, American scientist and first woman appointed to the faculty of Harvard University, is born.

Hamilton began her long career in public health and workplace safety in 1910, when Illinois governor Charles S. Deneen appointed her as a medical investor to the newly-formed Illinois Commission on Occupational Diseases. Hamilton lead the commission’s investigations, which focused on industrial poisons such as lead and other toxins. She also authored the “Illinois Survey,” the commission’s report that documented its findings of industrial processes that exposed workers to lead poisoning and other illnesses. The commission’s efforts resulted in the passage of the first workers’ compensation laws in Illinois in 1911, in Indiana in 1915, and occupational disease laws in other states. The new laws required employers to take safety precautions to protect workers.

Read more

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1902 – American author John Steinbeck is born.

Steinbeck began to write a series of “California novels” and Dust Bowl fiction, set among common people during the Great Depression. These included In Dubious Battle, Of Mice and Men and The Grapes of Wrath. He also wrote an article series called The Harvest Gypsies for the San Francisco News about the plight of the migrant worker.

Of Mice and Men was a drama about the dreams of two migrant agricultural laborers in California. It was critically acclaimed[18] and Steinbeck’s 1962 Nobel Prize citation called it a “little masterpiece”. Its stage production was a hit, starring Wallace Ford as George and Broderick Crawford as George’s companion, the mentally childlike, but physically powerful itinerant farmhand Lennie. Steinbeck refused to travel from his home in California to attend any performance of the play during its New York run, telling director George S. Kaufman that the play as it existed in his own mind was “perfect” and that anything presented on stage would only be a disappointment. Steinbeck wrote two more stage plays (The Moon Is Down and Burning Bright).

Read more

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2014 – Adafruit publishes our Adafruit 1-Wire Thermocouple Amplifier – MAX31850K Learn Guide.

Thermocouples are very sensitive, requiring a good amplifier with a cold-compensation reference. So far we’ve carried the very nice MAX31855 which is an SPI interface thermocouple amplifier. The ‘855 is great but if you have a lot of thermocouples to measure it isn’t terribly easy to use. That’s why we are also carrying the new ‘850 model from Maxim – it’s a “1-Wire” thermocouple amp which can have any number of breakouts on a single shared I/O line.

Read more

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2014 – International Polar Bear Day is first celebrated.

International Polar Bear Day is organized by Polar Bears International to raise awareness about the impact of global warming and reduced sea ice on polar bear populations.The day encourages people to find ways to reduce their carbon output, such as by turning down their thermostat or driving less. The day has also been used to encourage the installation of energy efficient insulation in houses.

Read more

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Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q4, down from the advance estimate of 2.6%.

• 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for a reading of 65.0, down from 65.7 in January.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in January

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 1.07%, down from 1.08% in December. Freddie's rate is up from 0.99% in January 2017.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Click on graph for larger image

The recent increase in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - no worries about the overall market (These are serious delinquencies, so it took three months late to be counted).

After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.5% to 0.8% range.

Note: Fannie Mae will report for January soon.

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Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

For in depth description of these issues, see former Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko's article "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"

Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010).  I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through November 2017).   The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s, and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings have declined since the bubble.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.

The swings in the seasonal factors has started to decrease, and I expect that over the next several years - as the percent of distressed sales declines further and recent history is included in the factors - the seasonal factors will move back towards more normal levels.

However, as Kolko noted, there will be a lag with the seasonal factor since it is based on several years of recent data.

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Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in December

It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 7.0% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 11.1% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 6%. In December, the index was up 6.3% YoY.

Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $282,000 today adjusted for inflation (41%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).

Nominal House Prices

The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through December) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is at a new peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to March 2006 levels (and will probably be at a new high soon).



Real House Prices

The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to November 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to April 2004.

In real terms, house prices are back to 2004 levels.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 2000 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to January 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to October 2003 levels.

In real terms, prices are back to mid 2004 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to late 2003, early 2004 - and the price-to-rent ratio has been increasing slowly.

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Richmond Fed: District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in February

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in February

Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in February, according to the results from the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index jumped from 14 in January to 28 in February, the second highest value on record, driven by increases in shipments, orders, and employment. The wages index remained in positive territory at 23, while the available skills metric dropped from −10 in January to −17 in February. Despite greater difficulty finding skilled workers, District manufacturing firms saw strong growth in employment and the average workweek in February. Survey results show that manufacturers expect to see continued growth in the coming months.

Manufacturing firms saw growth accelerate for both prices paid and prices received, with each increasing at the highest rate since April 2017. Firms expect prices to continue to grow at a faster rate in the near future.
emphasis added

This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for February.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through February), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through February) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through January (right axis).

Based on these regional surveys, it seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will be strong again in February (to be released Thursday, Mar 1st). The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.6, down from 59.1 in January.

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Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Excerpts from prepared statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong. The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment. Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative. In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.
emphasis added

And on the balance sheet:

The Congress has assigned us the goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Over the second half of 2017, the FOMC continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at our December meeting, bringing the target to a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. In addition, in October we initiated a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. That program has been proceeding smoothly. These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in December

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Shows Home Prices End the Year 6.3% Higher than 2016

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.2% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.2%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.6% month-over-month increases. Twelve of the 20 cities reported increases in December before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Across the 20 cities covered by S&P Corelogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62%; over the same period, inflation was 12.4%. None of the cities covered in this release saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017. The National Index, which reached its low point in 2012, is up 38% in six years after adjusting for inflation, a real annual gain of 5.3%. The National Index’s average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.

“Within the last few months, there are beginning to be some signs that gains in housing may be leveling off. Sales of existing homes fell in December and January after seasonal adjustment and are now as low as any month in 2017. Pending sales of existing homes are roughly flat over the last several months. New home sales appear to be following the same trend as existing home sales. While the price increases do not suggest any weakening of demand, mortgage rates rose from 4% to 4.4% since the start of the year. It is too early to tell if the housing recovery is slowing. If it is, some moderation in price gains could be seen later this year.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 3.1% from the peak, and up 0.6% in December (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off slightly from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in December.

The National index is 7.0% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.7% (SA) in December.  The National index is up 44.7% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.0% compared to December 2016.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 20 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller, Fed Chair Powell

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another 2018 First For Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates fell for the third day in a row--the first time that's happened so far in 2018! Much like last week was slightly less spectacular than its "best in 2018" designation, today also comes with caveats. Even though rates technically did fall for the third straight day, most of the day was spent with underlying bond markets moving into weaker territory. This resulted in several lenders raising rates in the middle of the day, leaving them roughly in line with Friday's latest offerings. [30YR FIXED - 4.625%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 6.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for December 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testimony, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. This is the last of the regional surveys for February.

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Jared Kushner’s Security Clearance Downgraded

The president’s adviser and son-in-law lost his top-secret clearance, a White House official and another person familiar with Mr. Kushner’s situation said.

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Parkland Massacre Thrusts Guns Into the Midterm Spotlight

Lawmakers in both parties are recalibrating their positions on gun control in the wake of the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

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No Bail Hearings for Detained Immigrants, Supreme Court Rules

In a rare move, Justice Stephen G. Breyer dissented from the bench, saying the majority was violating fundamental constitutional principles.

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Judge Orders Tarps Removed From Confederate Statues in Charlottesville

The city placed black shrouds over statues of Gens. Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson after a deadly white nationalist rally last August.

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Hope Hicks Acknowledges She Sometimes Tells White Lies for Trump

Ms. Hicks, the White House communications director, told lawmakers investigating Russia’s election interference that she has not lied about matters relevant to their inquiry.

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11 Sickened by Hazardous Envelope Opened on Military Base

Nine Marines were among those being treated after a letter containing a hazardous but unknown substance was opened on the Virginia base near the Pentagon.

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As Xi Tightens His Grip on China, U.S. Sees Conflict Ahead

Whether it is saber-rattling in the South China Sea, proselytizing on American campuses or censorship of the web, China has alienated one constituency after another.

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Trump’s 2020 Campaign Announcement Had a Very Trumpian Rollout

The selection of a close ally of Jared Kushner to run the president’s 2020 campaign was seen as a power move by Mr. Trump’s son-in-law. Elsewhere, Mr. Kushner had a rough day.

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Justice Dept. Backs High-Stakes Lawsuit Against Opioid Makers

Attorney General Jeff Sessions said he would use legal actions and task forces to crack down on prescription opioid manufacturers, distributors and prescribers.

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White House Has Given No Orders to Counter Russian Meddling, N.S.A. Chief Says

Admiral Michael S. Rogers’s testimony was the second time this month that a senior American intelligence official had said that the efforts to interfere in U.S. elections didn’t end in 2016.

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Most Americans Want More Gun Control. Why Doesn’t It Happen?

Polls show solid support for stricter laws, especially after mass shootings. But there are also deep disagreement, staunch opposition and growing disenchantment with gun control.

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Mnuchin Floats Rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade Deal Trump Shelved

Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said he had held “high-level” discussions with counterparts about what it would take for the United States to reverse course.

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Must Tech Firms Provide Data Held Abroad? Justices Struggle to Apply 1986 Law

The Supreme Court appeared frustrated by the poor fit between the law and technology in a clash between law enforcement demands and firms’ desire to protect customers’ privacy.

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Nonfiction: A Different Perspective on the Border

In his memoir, “The Line Becomes a River,” Francisco Cantú argues that he needed to be a Border Patrol agent to understand immigration.

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Trump Losing College-Educated Whites? He Never Won Them in the First Place

New evidence that exit polls are a very flawed vehicle for doing post-election analysis.

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Trump Opens Door, Just Slightly, to Talking With North Korea

“We want to talk also,” the president said. But hours later, the top U.S. diplomat on North Korea abruptly announced his departure.

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House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index

During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others).

Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index.

The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted), compared to Case-Shiller (Seasonally Adjusted).

Click on graph for larger image.

The median and mean house prices showed less of an increase in prices during the bubble (this was the distortion I discussed back in 2005 and 2006).

Now it appears the median and mean prices are pretty much tracking the Case-Shiller index.

The second graph show the same data on a year-over-year basis.

On a year-over-year basis, the mean and median track Case-Shiller pretty closely.

The Case-Shiller National Index was up 6.2% in November.

The NAR median price was up 5.8% in January, and the mean price was up 4.7%.

I still prefer the repeat sales indexes, but I think the NAR prices are also useful.

The third graph shows the NAR existing home median prices, the Census Bureau's new home median prices, and the Case-Shiller national index.

As has been widely reported, the new home builders have been focused on higher priced homes - and this is clear in the house price data.

Compared to the bubble peak, the NAR median price is up 4.4%, the Case-Shiller index is up 6.4%, however new home median prices are up 27.5%!

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Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in January

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Sharply in January; Hurricanes’ Lingering Impact on Performance Continues

• Calendar-driven effects and fewer hurricane-related delinquencies resulted in a 210,000-loan decline in the number of past-due mortgages

• Despite an 8.6 percent monthly decline, delinquencies remain 1.3 percent above last year’s levels

• 146,000 loans remain delinquent as a result of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, 132,000 of which are seriously delinquent (90 or more days past due)

• An early look at January data on the mortgage market in Puerto Rico shows an additional 57,000 loans still delinquent as a result of Hurricane Maria, with 49,000 seriously delinquent

• The population of loans in active foreclosure rose 6,000 month-over-month, marking only the second monthly rise in more than five years

According to Black Knight's First Look report for January, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 8.6% in January compared to December, and increased 1.3% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 1.8% in January and were down 30% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.31% in January, down from 4.71% in December.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in January to 0.66%.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is up 40,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 144,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Jan 2018	Dec 2017	Jan 2017	Jan 2016
Delinquent	4.31%	4.71%	4.25%	5.09%
In Foreclosure	0.66%	0.65%	0.94%	1.30%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	2,202,000	2,412,000	2,162,000	2,575,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	337,000	331,000	481,000	659,000
Total Properties	2,539,000	2,743,000	2,643,000	3,234,000

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Duy's Fed Watch: "Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path"

From Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path

Fed speakers continue to reiterate that policy remains on a gradual path of tightening. So far, the inflation data and brightening economy has more emboldened their commitment to gradual rate hikes than a faster pace of hikes. What about fiscal policy? That train has left the station, but central bankers don’t seem too concerned – yet.
...
If the Fed wants to see what happens if you run the economy hot, best to give it a try in a low inflation, well-anchored inflation expectations environment. If the economy overheats and sends inflation to 3 percent, it wouldn’t be something the Fed couldn’t control. I am willing to endorse that experiment.
...
Bottom Line: Fed speakers continue to show no urgency to accelerate the pace of rate hikes despite firming inflation data and budget-busting fiscal stimulus. Also, keep an eye out for the possibility that Trump’s appointees reveal themselves to be doves in hawks’ clothing.

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Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 February

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17 February 2018, according to data from STR.

In comparison with the week of 12-18 February 2017, the industry recorded the following:

• Occupancy: +1.2% to 62.9%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +3.2% to US$128.75
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +4.4% to US$80.99
emphasis added

Note: Houston is no longer reporting a large year-over-year increase in occupancy, so it appears the impact of the hurricanes is fading.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels).

Currently the occupancy rate is second overall, to date (just behind 2006) - and ahead of the record year in 2017 (2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes).

Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

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Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued Solid Growth" in February

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Posted Continued Solid Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that the Tenth District manufacturing survey posted continued solid growth, and expectations for future activity increased moderately.

“February was another good month for factories in our region,” said Wilkerson. “A rising number of firms reported higher input and selling prices.”
...
The month-over-month composite index was 17 in February, higher than 16 in January and 13 in December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity grew at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for metals, machinery, and plastics products. Most month-over-month indexes also increased. The shipments, new orders, and employment indexes all rose moderately. The order backlog index fell from 20 to 13, and the new orders for exports index also eased somewhat. The raw materials inventory index decreased from 15 to 8, while the finished goods inventory index was basically unchanged.

Most year-over-year factory indexes were higher in February. The composite index rose from 35 to 38, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also increased. The employment index climbed from 31 to 39, and the capital expenditures index inched slightly higher. The raw materials inventory index fell from 38 to 23, while the finished goods inventory index increased slightly.
emphasis added

So far all of the regional Fed surveys have been solid in February, and most have been above the January levels (most indexes suggest faster growth in February than in January).

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 228,500 to 228,250.

Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal.
emphasis added

The previous week was revised down.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 226,000.

This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest relatively few layoffs.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hit New 4-Year Highs

Mortgage rates continued higher today following the release of the Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (aka "The Fed") most recent policy meeting. The Fed was slightly more upbeat than markets expected, saying that most members agreed that a stronger economy increased the likelihood of further rate hikes. ... Unfortunately, today that meant rates moved to their highest levels in more than 4 years. For what it's worth, today's rates are only microscopically higher than last week's highs. [30YR FIXED - 4.625%]
emphasis added

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 229 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand the previous week.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February.

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NYT: Hope Hicks says sometimes she lies for Trump

The New York Times reports while speaking to the House Intelligence Committee, Trump aide Hope Hicks admitted she's told white lies for her boss, but said never anything dealing with the Russia probe. Our panel reacts.

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NSA boss: Trump hasn't told me to fight Russian meddling

The head of the NSA, Admiral Mike Rogers, faced a lot of frustration and anger from Democrats when he revealed on Capitol Hill that Trump has not directed him to do more to stop meddling from Moscow. Our panel reacts.

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Rpt: Foreign officials have discussed how to manipulate Kushner

On the same day Jared Kushner lost his high-level White House security clearance, The Washington Post reports - citing multiple current & fmr. U.S. officials - that foreign officials from four countries sought to manipulate the president's son-in-law.

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Mueller's new questions about Jared Kushner

Jared Kushner has lost access to some intelligence amid his trouble getting a security clearance — which leakers were eager to talk to reporters about. And now Robert Mueller is reportedly asking about Jared Kushner's meetings with foreign leaders.

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Hope Hicks reportedly admits telling 'white lies' for Trump

Hope Hicks reportedly told House investigators she is required to tell white lies as part of her job in the Trump W.H. Jill Wine-Banks reacts and Natasha Bertrand joins Lawrence O'Donnell with new reporting on Wikileaks' contacts with Trump associate...

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Democrats flip seats in N.H., Connecticut special elections

Rachel Maddow reports on three state special elections, two of which, in New Hampshire and Connecticut, were formerly Republican-held and flipped by Democrats, and a third, in Kentucky, that was retained by Republicans but saw a 28 point Democratic swing

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Hotel in Panama fights to shed Trump name citing name's stigma

David Fahrenthold, reporter for The Washington Post, talks with Rachel Maddow about the Trump hotel in Panama fighting to remove Donald Trump's name, and the potential political implications if Trump tries tries to insert himself.

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